Housing Market Predictions for 2024
One real estate-focused company, Redfin, predicts that 2024 is the year house hunters finally catch a break as the housing market makes the slow recovery from the pandemic, inflation, and a lack of inventory.
What’s ahead in the new year, according to Redfin? We explore that below.
The Return of a Buyer’s Market?
Redfin reports, “Home prices will fall because supply will rise more than demand.” The lack of supply caused the seller’s market of 2022, and more housing inventory will begin leveling the playing field, so to speak, between buyers and sellers.
In a seller’s market, the homeowner does not have to consider seller concessions, a less competitive offer, or any offer they don’t like the looks of.
But when there is less competition for a smaller inventory of homes, the seller loses that power dynamic and must consider making some kind of effort to meet the borrower halfway.
Home Prices Falling?
Redfin predicts home prices will drop in the second quarter of 2024. “That will mark the first time prices have declined since 2012, when the housing market was recovering from the Great Recession, with the exception of a brief period in the first half of 2023.”
Home Sales Rising
Redfin speculates that in the first three months of 2024, existing home sales will be headed toward “4.1 million total in 2024, up from an annual pace of 3.85 million in the fourth quarter of 2023. Sales will continue rising throughout the year; they’ll be on pace for a total of 4.5 million by the fourth quarter.”
This prediction is made on the belief that sales will improve in the new year and that with the increased affordability of available homes next year, more may become interested in house hunting once more.
The Difference Between 2023 and 2024
There’s speculation that for one important reason, 2024 will look much different than 2023 for house hunters. Momentum.
2023 didn’t seem to have any, and Redfin predicts as improvements in rates, inventory, and costs begin to grow over time, a kind of momentum is possible in 2024 that simply did not manifest in 2023.
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